According to VanEck, Solana (SOL) could reach $520 by the end of 2025. Analysts attribute this projection to Solana’s expected market share in the smart contract platform space and the U.S. M2 money supply.
“We assess Solana’s (SOL) value based on its projected year-end market share in the smart contract platform (SCP) sector,” stated Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Patrick Bush, Crypto Research Analyst. “Our SCP market cap forecast is driven by the growth of the U.S. M2 money supply, which has historically shown a strong correlation with crypto market capitalization.”
They shared their prediction in a post on X.
According to the forecast, the U.S. M2 money supply is expected to reach $22.3 trillion by year-end, growing at an annualized rate of 3.2%. Using regression analysis, VanEck estimates the total smart contract platform (SCP) market capitalization will rise to $1.1 trillion by the end of 2025. Currently valued at approximately $770 billion, this projection suggests a 43% increase, surpassing the 2021 peak of $989 billion.
What does this mean for Solana’s price in 2025?
VanEck points out that there has historically been a strong correlation between the U.S. M2 money supply and the market capitalization of smart contract platforms (SCP). If this trend continues, an increase in Solana’s share of the SCP market cap could drive its native token’s price higher.
“Currently, Solana holds 15% of the SCP market cap, but we expect its share to grow to 22% by the end of 2025. This forecast is supported by Solana’s developer leadership, rising market share in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, revenues, and active users,” the analysts explained.
Using an autoregressive forecast model, Sigel and Bush predict Solana’s market cap could reach around $250 billion, which would suggest a SOL price of $520, based on the altcoin’s 486 million circulating tokens.
As of writing, Solana’s price is hovering around $189, down nearly 5% in the last 24 hours and 21% over the past week. However, SOL has gained 98% over the last year and hit a new all-time high above $294 on January 19, 2025.
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