Starlink subscriptions drop in Kenya as ISP reopens signups

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📉 Subscriber Drop & What Drove It

• Subscriber decline: Starlink’s net new subscriptions plunged 72.9% in Q4 2024—adding just 2,360 users (Oct–Dec) versus 8,723 in the previous quarter.
• Reason: This wasn’t due to waning interest, but a freeze on new activations across Nairobi and nearby counties (Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, Murang’a), triggered by network overload.

🔄 Sign‑Ups Reopened

• Resumption: After more than 7 months, Starlink resumed subscriptions in late June 2025 in Nairobi and adjacent counties.
• Infrastructure upgrades: The expansion included a new Nairobi ground station commissioned in January 2025, boosting both capacity and reducing latency.
• Performance improvements: Early users report download speeds of 50–150 Mbps, uploads up to 15 Mbps, and latency of 18–40 ms.

📊 Market Share & Trends

• Dropped ~2,080 users in Q1 2025 but maintained top‑10 ISP ranking .
• Current share still modest (~0.9%) but seen as strong in underserved areas where fibre isn’t available.

💬 User Sentiment & On‑the‑Ground Feedback

“We were promised increased capacity… this delay is causing significant frustration”
“With the introduction of a Starlink POP in Kenya, latency has drastically improved… from 60–170 ms down to 18–40 ms”

Some urban users still mention spotty consistency, though general sentiment is leaning positive post‑POP deployment.

⚖️ Regulatory & Competitive Landscape

• Licence fee hike: CAK has proposed raising 15-year satellite ISP licences from $12,300 → $115,300, plus a 0.4% revenue levy.
• Local pushback: Safaricom and others have lodged objections, citing interference risks and urging Starlink to partner with local ISPs.
• Legacy ISPs responding: Safaricom is accelerating fibre/5G expansion; Airtel is partnering with Starlink for backhaul.

🚀 Outlook

1. Rebound potential: With improved capacity and resumed sign‑ups, subscriber numbers are expected to recover in the upcoming quarter.
2. Major hurdles ahead: Surging licence costs and stiff competition from fibre and terrestrial 5G pose long-term challenges.
3. Strong niche play: Starlink remains an attractive solution in remote or underserved regions, though sustainability in urban zones depends heavily on continuous infrastructure upgrades.

Summary: Starlink in Kenya saw a Q4 2024 subscriber drop due to a deliberate sign‑up freeze over capacity constraints. With sign‑ups reopened in June 2025 and network upgrades in place, its performance has improved considerably. However, rising regulatory costs and entrenched competition will test its ability to scale in the long term.

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