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EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič flew to Washington on July 16, 2025, for separate meetings with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. His mission: prevent oral tariffs from rising to 30% on EU exports as threatened by President Trump effective 1 August The Washington Post+15The Guardian+15Yahoo+15.
📈 What’s at Stake
- WTO‑style “reciprocal” tariffs: Trump is pushing a 10% universal levy, with up to 30% on “problematic” partners like the EU — if no deal is reached by August 1 .
- European industries on alert: Major exporters—chips (e.g. ASML), autos, pharma—are already delaying investment due to mounting uncertainty Reuters+1Daily Times+1.
- EU’s backup strategy: A €72 billion retaliation package has been drafted, targeting U.S. goods and services—from Boeing jets and bourbon to digital ads and chemicals—ready for deployment post-August 1 if negotiations fail Yahoo+11Financial Times+11Daily Times+11.
🤝 Why This Trip Matters
- Urgent diplomacy: Brussels believed a 10% deal was within reach after months of talks. Trump’s sudden escalation caught them off guard .
- Dialing down the dial: The EU has delayed planned retaliatory tariffs to buy time for diplomacy until early August The Washington Post+2Wikipedia+2CNA+2.
- Critical juncture: If no compromise is struck by around August 6, both sides risk slipping into a full-blown trade war that shocks supply chains, dims investor confidence, and inflates prices Yahoo.
🔜 What’s Next to Watch
- Negotiation results: Will the U.S. settle on a 10% baseline tariff, or will the EU gain key carve‑outs (e.g. on cars, pharma, semiconductors)?
- Retaliation kickoff: The EU could activate its €72 billion response package soon after Aug 1, unless a deal is sealed.
- Wider implications: This standoff may set the tone for the U.S.’s upcoming deals with India, Canada, and other partners Financial Times+1Wikipedia+1.
✅ Bottom Line
Šefčovič’s visit is a last‑minute bid to head off an EU‑U.S. trade war. It’s a make-or-break moment—if diplomacy fails by early August, both sides could escalate with sweeping tariffs that ripple through global trade.
Let me know if you’d like deeper insights into the industries affected or the geopolitical strategy.
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